Consumer Expectations Index Sinks Below Recession Levels

Jun. 25, 2025 | |

The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 93 in June, down 5.4 points from May. Leading the decline is a plummeting Expectations Index, which fell 4.6 points to 69, mired below the 80-point threshold the Conference Board says “typically signals” an oncoming recession.

The Expectations Index reflects consumers’ short-term outlook, including income and employment prospects. The Consumer Confidence Index’s other component, the Present Situation Index, gauges Americans’ assessment of the current market; that score declined 6.4 points to 129.1.

In a release, Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board’s senior economist for global indicators, notes declining confidence is prevalent among all age groups and political affiliations.

“The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration,” Guichard writes. “Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market.”

Read more at The Conference Board